The Suns’ late-season march to the playoffs comes with the NBA’s toughest schedule for the final 45 days of the season.

We’ve reached the home stretch of the 2023-24 season, which is 72% complete as we enter March.

The Boston Celtics are running away with the best record in the league and there are six teams (three in each conference) with (basically) no way to make the Play-In. But there’s still a lot to be sorted out between now and April 14.

Here’s a schedule breakdown for the final 45 days of the season …

Note: A rest-advantage game (or rest-disadvantage game) is one where one team played the day/night before, but the other (the team with the advantage) did not. Teams are 129-100 (.563) in rest-advantage games, 72-49 (.595) at home and 57-51 (.528) on the road, through Feb. 29.

Remaining strength of schedule

Here’s a look at the remaining schedule for every team, sorted from the toughest (in regard to cumulative opponent winning percentage) to the easiest:

OppPCT = Cumulative opponent winning percentage (as of Feb. 29)
B2B = Back-to-backs (includes four Feb. 29 – March 1 back-to-backs)
H | R = Home games | Road games

Notes on every Eastern Conference team

• The Hawks won five of their first seven road games this season, but are 6-15 on the road (and haven’t won two straight road games) since late November. Their loss in Brooklyn on Thursday began a stretch where they’re playing nine of 11 on the road, with another big game in Brooklyn (the Nets trail them by three games for the final Play-In spot in the East) on Saturday afternoon.

• The Celtics currently have the most efficient offense in NBA history (121.2 points scored per 100 possessions) and they have the league’s easiest remaining schedule in regard to opposing defenses, with only five of their 24 games against teams that enter March in the top 10 defensively and 12 against teams that rank in the bottom 10. March will bring their two longest road trips of the season (five and six games), but only four of those 11 total games are against teams with winning records, with three of those four — at Cleveland, Denver and Phoenix — being the start of the trip that begins on Tuesday.

• If the Nets are going to have a chance at the Play-In, they need to win games right now. Their first five games of March are one of the easiest remaining stretches across the league, with the Joel-Embiid-less Sixers being the only opponent with a winning record. But the second game (vs. Memphis on Monday) is the start of their only stretch of five games in seven nights this season and the fourth is the start of a stretch where they’re playing 10 of 11 on the road (where they’re 9-19).

• The Hornets had won three straight home games before their loss to Milwaukee on Thursday and their longest homestand of the season (eight games over 14 days) begins March 27, but they’re still five games into a stretch where they’re playing 13 of 17 on the road.

• The Bulls are one of two Eastern Conference teams (the Hawks are the other) with a losing record overall, but a winning record (12-10) vs. the West. After they host the Bucks on Friday, they’ll play eight of 10 against the opposite conference, including both of their games against the Clippers.

• The Cavs are the league’s only undefeated team (7-0) in rest-advantage games. They have three remaining (all at home), with the toughest being a visit from the Wolves on March 8. They’re currently just 7-12 within the top eight in the Eastern Conference, with seven games remaining against the group, starting with home games against the Knicks and Celtics on Sunday and Tuesday.

• The Pistons are the only team with only one remaining game against an opponent playing the second game of a back-to-back. And that’s in Boston on March 18, when the Pistons will be on the second game of a back-to-back themselves. So they’re done with rest-advantage games, having gone 1-5.

• The Pacers have the league’s most road-heavy remaining schedule, with 13 of their 22 games on the road. The good news is that they have only two remaining back-to-backs, currently sporting the league’s biggest differential between their record with rest (32-17, including 14-10 on the road) and their record in the second games of back-to-backs (2-9, including 0-4 on the road).

• The Heat have the league’s second easiest remaining schedule in regard to cumulative opponent winning percentage, with a league-high 13 games against teams that currently rank in the bottom 10 defensively and a league-high five games remaining against the teams — Washington and Detroit — that currently have the ninth and 10th worst records in NBA history. They’re 3-0 against the Wizards and Pistons thus far, though all three games were decided by single digits.

• The Bucks are 19-13 (fourth best and 4-4 under Doc Rivers) in games played between the 18 teams that currently have winning records, with 16 games (second most) remaining against that group. After they visit the Bulls (with a rest disadvantage) on Friday, they’ll play 11 of their next 12 games against teams over .500 and it could be a defining stretch for their 16th-ranked defense, with seven of those games (including two against the Clippers) against teams that rank in the top 10 offensively.

• The Knicks have the worst record (12-23, including 1-7 over the last four weeks) in games played between the 18 teams that are currently over .500, and (in addition to being shorthanded) they’re just two games into a stretch where they’re playing nine of 11 against that group. Eight of their final 13 games will be against teams currently below .500, against whom they’re 23-2 (second best).

• The Magic have the league’s easiest remaining schedule and are already four games into a stretch where they’re playing 11 of 13 against teams with losing records. The two exceptions are games against teams — New York (on the road) and Indiana — against whom they’re currently 5-0.

• The Sixers have had the league’s fourth easiest schedule to date in regard to cumulative opponent winning percentage and have the ninth easiest going forward. Their remaining schedule is road heavy and they’re just 5-9 on the road without Joel Embiid, but their last five games (maybe when Embiid is back?) is one of the easiest five-game stretches remaining for any team: at Memphis, at San Antonio, vs. Detroit, vs. Orlando, vs. Brooklyn.

• The Raptors won their first three games out of the All-Star break, but remain four games behind the Hawks for the final Play-In spot in the East. They have the league’s 12th easiest remaining schedule in regard to cumulative opponent winning percentage, but 16 of their 23 games are against teams that currently have winning records. They’re 9-24 (1-7 since mid-January) against that group thus far.

• The Wizards are currently 0-10 in the second games of back-to-backs, with only four teams in NBA history having gone winless without rest over a full season, the last being the 1990-91 Kings (0-17). The Wizards have three more games without rest: Friday at the Clippers, March 17 vs. Boston and April 3 vs. the Lakers.

Notes on every Western Conference team

• The Mavs‘ second (and final) stretch of five games in seven days is April 4-10, though they won’t be at a rest disadvantage in that stretch at all. Their only remaining rest-disadvantage game (they’re one of four teams with one or zero) is March 14 in Oklahoma City.

• The Nuggets are the only team with only one back-to-back (and zero rest-disadvantage games) left to play. It’s April 9 and 10, a visit to Utah followed by what could be a huge home game against Minnesota (the final of three remaining meetings).

• The Warriors are one of five teams with a better record on the road (15-12) than they have at home (16-15), and they’re one of two teams with a league-high 14 road games remaining. They’re also one of two teams — Detroit’s the other — with no more rest-advantage games.

• The Rockets have the West’s second easiest remaining schedule in regard to cumulative opponent winning percentage but have more remaining road games (13) than home games (12). They currently have the third biggest home-road differential (20-10 vs. 5-24) of the last 20 seasons.

• The Clippers are one of two teams — the Blazers are the other — with a league-high 25 games left to play. They’re tied with the Kings for the most remaining back-to-backs (six) and are the only team with two remaining sets of five games in seven nights. They’re also tied (with three other teams) for the most rest-advantage games remaining (five).

• The Lakers are the only team with only 21 games left to play. They have a league-high four breaks of two days or more and they’re just two games into a stretch where they’re playing 11 of 12 at Crypto.com Arena, currently holding the league’s third-biggest home-road differential in regard to winning percentage (21-9 vs. 12-19).

• There are 14 games left between the bottom six teams in the league and the Grizzlies will play in eight of the 14. Two of the eight are a home back-to-back against the Blazers this weekend.

• The Wolves‘ first three games of March are the end of their only stretch of five games in seven days, with their game against the Clippers on Sunday being the first of five remaining within the top four in the West (two vs. LA, three vs. Denver). They’ll be on the road or playing with a rest disadvantage (at home vs. Denver on March 19) in the final four of those.

• The Pelicans are tied with the Clippers for the most interconference games remaining, playing 12 of their 22 against the Eastern Conference.

• The Thunder are done playing the other teams in the West’s top four (finishing 7-4 within the group), but still have one of the league’s toughest five-game stretches remaining. They’ll host the Suns on March 29, then begin a five-game trip with games in New York, Philadelphia, Boston and Indiana.

• The Suns have the league’s toughest schedule in regard to cumulative opponent winning percentage and the most remaining games (17) against teams that enter March with winning records, currently 16-16 within that group. Thirteen of those 17 are against the seven teams with better records than they have, and they’re just 2-5 against those seven teams thus far. They also have the toughest remaining schedule in regard to both opposing offenses (average rank of 12.8) and opposing defenses (average rank of 11.3).

• The Blazers‘ second (and final) stretch of five games in seven days (March 8-14) is the final five games of a six-game homestand, their longest of the season.

• The Kings have the most home-heavy remaining schedule among the 24 teams still competing for a playoff or Play-In spot, with 15 of their 24 games (including homestands of six and five games) at Golden 1 Center. But they’re one of two teams — the Clippers are the other — with a league-high six remaining back-to-backs, with the toughest being at New York and Boston on April 4 and 5.

• The Spurs have the league’s most home-heavy remaining schedule, though two of their 14 home games (March 15 and 17 vs. Denver and Brooklyn) are in Austin.

• The Jazz have the league’s second toughest remaining schedule in regard to cumulative opponent winning percentage. Nine of their final 22 games — including two each against the Nuggets, Clippers and Wolves — are against the seven teams that are currently at least 17 games over .500. They’re actually 5-8 (seventh best among the other 23 teams) against that group, including 4-1 since early January.

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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X. 

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