Power Rankings

Offseason Power Rankings: Nuggets rank No. 1 in deep West

See where all 15 teams in the Western Conference rank after a busy offseason.

The Nuggets and Suns lead the offseason edition of our Western Conference Power Rankings.

There have been four different teams to represent the Western Conference in the Finals in the last four years. All four teams — the Los Angeles Lakers, Phoenix Suns, Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets – are contenders to get there again in 2024.

But this may be the toughest Western Conference of the last several years to navigate. The East has actually had a better interconference record than the West in each of the last two seasons, but the West sure does look deeper this year.

Beyond the four conference champs of the last four years (who were also the four teams in the conference semifinals three months ago), we have …

  • The teams — the Memphis Grizzlies and Sacramento Kings — that finished second and third in the regular season last year.
  • A team — the LA Clippers — with two of the best two-way players in the league.
  • A team — the New Orleans Pelicans — that was 42-40 despite missing its best player for the last 45 games of the season.
  • A team — the Dallas Mavericks — with two of the best offensive players in the world.

That’s nine teams, so at least one of the above will not make the playoffs. And it could be more than one because the Oklahoma City Thunder were competitive (finishing 40-42) last season and have a slew of young players that will only get better. The Minnesota Timberwolves made the playoffs last season and have a 22-year-old, budding star. The Houston Rockets are coming from the bottom of the standings but added some vets to expedite their rise.

The Utah Jazz hung around in the playoff picture for far longer than anybody expected last season. The San Antonio Spurs added the most-hyped Draft pick of the last 20 years. And for the time being, the Portland Trail Blazers still have Damian Lillard.

Some of these teams won’t live up to expectations, but some will surpass them. Here’s how things stack up in the Western Conference with free agency in the rear-view mirror and Lillard still residing in Portland.

For these offseason rankings, we’re looking at each conference separately, having sorted through the East last week. All stats refer to the 2022-23 regular season unless otherwise noted.


Previous Power Rankings

  • This time last year: Offseason Power Rankings: Warriors, Suns lead wide-open Western Conference — The Warriors were the defending champs but had lost Mike Brown (to the Kings) and some key reserves. Kawhi Leonard and Jamal Murray were coming back after missing all of the 2021-22 season, and the Nuggets strengthened their backcourt by adding Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. The Mavs lost Jalen Brunson, the Spurs traded Dejounte Murray, and the Wolves paid a lot to team Rudy Gobert with Karl-Anthony Towns. The Blazers brought in Jerami Grant and Gary Payton II to help their defense, while the Thunder drafted Chet Holmgren and two guys with the same name. The Jazz hired Will Hardy and traded Gobert, but had yet to deal Donovan Mitchell.

OffRtg: Points scored per 100 possessions (League Rank)
DefRtg: Points allowed per 100 possessions (League Rank)
NetRtg: Point differential per 100 possessions (League Rank)
Pace: Possessions per 48 minutes (League Rank)

The league averaged 114.1 points scored per 100 possessions and 99.8 possessions (per team) per 48 minutes last season.


NBA.com’s Power Rankings, released every Monday during the season, are just one man’s opinion. If you have an issue with the rankings, or have a question or comment for John Schuhmann, send him an e-mail or contact him via Twitter.


Last Week:1

2022-23 record: 53-29

OffRtg: 116.8 (5) DefRtg: 113.5 (15) NetRtg: +3.3 (6) Pace: 98.7 (24)

Key addition(s): Justin Holiday

Key departure(s): Bruce Brown, Jeff Green

Three numbers to know:

  • The Nuggets are the only team that’s ranked in the top 10 offensively in each of the last seven seasons.
  • Their effective field goal percentage last season (57.3%) was the second-highest mark in NBA history.
  • In the regular season, the Nuggets were 22.9 points per 100 possessions better with Nikola Jokic on the floor (plus-12.5) than they were with him off the floor (minus-10.4). That was the third biggest differential for any player (minimum 1,000 minutes) in the last 16 seasons. In the playoffs, the differential was only 9.7 points per 100 possessions, with the Nuggets being outscored by just three total points in Jokic’s 176 minutes off the floor.

Key question: Can they keep their starters fresh?

As noted above, the Nuggets’ bench wasn’t so bad in the playoffs. But it took a hit with the departures of Brown and Green. Christian Braun and Zeke Nnaji should both see improvement, but the champs just aren’t as deep as they were two months ago. So it could be a challenge for head coach Michael Malone to manage minutes while trying to keep his team at the top of the Western Conference. Seeding matters and the Nuggets had the league’s third biggest home-road differential in winning percentage (34-7 vs. 19-22) and its second biggest differential in point differential per 100 possessions (plus-9.6 vs. minus-3.0) last season. Then they were 10-1 at home (and 6-3 on the road) in the playoffs.

The Nuggets still have Nikola Jokic, the best player in the world by consensus and one of the most durable stars in the league. They ranked 15th defensively in the regular season (second lowest for an eventual champ in the 27 years for which we have play-by-play data) but then allowed Miami to score just 100.0 points per 100 possessions over the last three games of the Finals, the best three-game stretch of defense they had all season. We can’t expect them to play at that level for 82 games, but we do know that they can defend when they need to.

Last Week:3

2022-23 record: 45-37

OffRtg: 114.5 (14) DefRtg: 112.3 (7) NetRtg: +2.2 (9) Pace: 98.8 (22)

Key addition(s): Bradley Beal, Eric Gordon, Yuta Watanabe

Key departure(s): Chris Paul, Cameron Payne, Torrey Craig, Landry Shamet

Coaching change: Monty Williams out, Frank Vogel in

Three numbers to know:

  • Paul, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant played 167 regular-season minutes and 202 playoff minutes together. The Suns were 12-3 in games in which they had all three and outscored their opponents by 13.4 points per 100 possessions in those 369 total minutes.
  • Durant shot 220-for-369 (59.6%) on pull-up 2-pointers, easily the best mark for a player with at least 100 attempts in the 10 years of tracking data.

Key question: Can they defend?

There’s little doubt that, even though they don’t have a point guard, the Suns’ offense will be ridiculously good. Durant will be 35 on opening night but remains one of the two best offensive players on the planet. Beal has missed 72 games over the last two seasons but is still just 30 years old. And Booker is still just 26 (until Oct. 30). All three of those guys are coming off the most efficient (Durant) or second-most efficient seasons of their careers.

Frank Vogel’s last team had the league’s No. 1 defense the season after it won a championship, which says a lot about his ability to coach that end of the floor. Durant was a terrific defender when he played last season and Josh Okogie is still here to be a bulldog off the bench. But that may not be enough for this to be a better-than-average defense unless Beal and Eric Gordon shed some of the bad habits they’re bringing from non-competitive teams.

The ceiling is high, but every team needs to play hard, play together and play defense to reach its ceiling. And those latter two elements will be the things to watch in Phoenix.

Last Week:2

2022-23 record: 43-39

OffRtg: 113.9 (19) DefRtg: 113.2 (12) NetRtg: +0.7 (16) Pace: 101.9 (4)

Key addition(s): Gabe Vincent, Taurean Prince

Key departure(s): Dennis Schroder, Lonnie Walker IV

Three numbers to know:

  • The Lakers have had a better-than-average offense in only one of the last 10 seasons. That was the year (2019-20) they won the championship.
  • The Lakers attempted 5.8 more free throws per game than their opponents. That was the biggest differential in the last five years and more than double the differential of any other team last season. Austin Reaves saw the second biggest jump in free throw rate (from 37.1 to 54.1 attempts per 100 shots from the field) among 257 players with at least 200 field goal attempts in each of the last two seasons.
  • They had the biggest differential between their field goal percentage in the paint (60.0%, sixth) and their effective field goal percentage on shots from outside the paint (48.3%, 27th). It was the fourth time in the last five seasons in which they’ve had the league’s biggest differential, with the only exception being 2021-22, when theirs (10.39%) was just a tick smaller than that of the Nuggets (10.41%).

Key question: Can the supporting cast do it over a full season?

After returning to the Lakers at the trade deadline, D’Angelo Russell averaged 17.4 points on a true shooting percentage of 61.0%, with the Lakers outscoring their opponents by 12.2 points per 100 possessions in his 526 regular-season minutes. Rui Hachimura, meanwhile, saw the second-biggest jump in true shooting percentage from the regular season (55.6%) to the playoffs (66.8%) among 84 players with at least 50 postseason field goal attempts.

LeBron James (league leader in fast-break points per game) and Anthony Davis (league leader in second-chance points per game) will continue to be the straws that stir the drink. But last season was clear evidence that it’s the competency of the supporting cast that will determine how far the Lakers go. Vincent should be a great fit, but this roster is still a little short on shooting, one of eight teams with fewer than four guys (the Lakers have three) that shot the league average or better on at least 100 3-point attempts last season.

Last Week:4

2022-23 record: 44-38

OffRtg: 115.1 (10) DefRtg: 113.4 (14) NetRtg: +1.7 (11) Pace: 102.5 (1)

Key addition(s): Chris Paul

Key departure(s): Jordan Poole, Donte DiVincenzo

Three numbers to know:

  • The Warriors saw the league’s biggest jump in pace from 2021-22 (98.7 possessions per 48 minutes, 15th) to ’22-23 (102.5, first). They also saw the third biggest jump in points allowed per 100 possessions, from 106.6 (second) in ’21-22 to 113.4 (14th) last season.
  • They led the league in assist percentage for the seventh time in the last eight seasons, recording assists on 69.1% of their field goals.
  • Stephen Curry shot 152-for-337 (45.1%) on pull-up 3-pointers, the best mark for a player with at least 100 attempts last season and the best mark for a player with at least 150 attempts in the 10 years of tracking data.

Key question: How does Paul fit in?

The 38-year-old is a pick-and-roll point guard who had 2,420 ball-screens set for him last season, according to Second Spectrum tracking. The Warriors are not a heavy pick-and-roll team, having ranked 28th in total ball-screens set (4,598). They led the league in ball movement and ranked sixth in player movement.

Whether or not Paul is in the starting lineup, they can stagger his minutes with those of Curry. But they’ll still be on the floor together a decent amount and on some critical possessions. It will be fascinating to see how the offense works in those moments.

As noted above, the bigger difference between the 2021-22 champion Warriors and last season’s Warriors was on defense. The starting lineup allowed just 106.1 points per 100 possessions, the best mark among 22 lineups that played at least 300 minutes together but was missing Andrew Wiggins for a huge chunk of the season. And on the bench, swapping Poole for Gary Payton II will certainly help on that end of the floor. But three guys on this roster — Paul, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson — who’ve been selected to All-Defense teams are 38, 33 and 33 years old.

Last Week:7

2022-23 record: 44-38

OffRtg: 114.0 (17) DefRtg: 113.6 (17) NetRtg: +0.5 (17) Pace: 98.8 (21)

Key addition(s): Kenyon Martin Jr.

Key departure(s): Eric Gordon

Three numbers to know:

  • The Clippers are the only team that’s ranked in the top five in 3-point percentage in each of the last two seasons. (They’ve ranked in the top 10 in eight of the last nine.) But overall, they’ve had a worse-than-average offense both years.
  • They were 24-14 (.632) and outscored their opponents by 3.7 points per 100 possessions in the 38 games in which they had both Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. In their 995 minutes on the floor together, the Clippers outscored their opponents by 8.9 points per 100 possessions, a mark which ranked 36th among 422 two-man combinations that played at least 750 minutes.
  • Leonard scored 1.17 points per possession as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, the best mark for a player with at least 200 ball-handler possessions in the 19 seasons of Synergy tracking.

Key question: How much can they really put into the regular season?

If you extract that 24-14 record with both George and Leonard over a full season, the Clippers would have finished second in the Western Conference. Now, it’s beyond unrealistic to believe that those guys can play 82 games, but the Clippers know that they need to play more. Overall, they were 9.9 points per 100 possessions better with Leonard on the floor (plus-6.1) than they were with him off the floor (minus-3.8), the 14th biggest differential among 252 players who played at least 1,000 minutes for a single team last season.

But how much harder can the Clips really push? George is 33 and was done for the season in late March, after playing 20 straight games for the first time since Nov. 2021. Leonard is 32 and has been injured at the end of each of the last three seasons. The team really has no choice but to be careful, also because it’s all-in for competing for a championship right now. Only the Sixers and Wolves got fewer minutes from rookies or second-year players than the Clippers (852) last season, and the only rookie LA has added was the 30th pick in the Draft.

Last Week:5

2022-23 record: 48-34

OffRtg: 118.6 (1) DefRtg: 116.0 (24) NetRtg: +2.6 (8) Pace: 101.0 (12)

Key addition(s): Sasha Vezenkov

Key departure(s): N/A

Three numbers to know:

  • They scored 128.6 points per 100 possessions with the score within five points in the last five minutes, the second best mark for any team in the 27 seasons of clutch data.
  • The Kings have been a worse-than-average defensive team in each of the last 17 seasons. The next longest active streak for better or worse than average on either end of the floor is 12 seasons long (Detroit as a below-average offense).

Key question: Can they climb out of the bottom 10 on defense?

The offense was a bigger issue in the playoffs when the Kings scored 9.2 fewer points per 100 possessions than they did in the regular season and were held to just 100 on 98 as they lost Game 7 at home. But given the personnel, the defense will remain the bigger question for the Kings, who were one of two teams — the Rockets were the other — that ranked in the bottom five in both opponent field goal percentage in the paint (60.1%, 26th) and opponent effective field goal percentage on shots from outside the paint (52.7%, 26th). Given that the personnel hasn’t changed much, it’s not clear how they get better.

Health is the biggest question for every team, but it should be noted that the Kings’ top seven guys in regard to minutes per game missed a total of just 28 games last season. Their starting lineup played 900 minutes together, the most for any lineup in the last four seasons. They will likely need to rely more on guys 8-12 this year, so the additions of Vezenkov and Chris Duarte (or the choice not to add anybody else) could be under scrutiny if the depth doesn’t hold up.

Last Week:6

2022-23 record: 51-31

OffRtg: 114.7 (11) DefRtg: 110.7 (3) NetRtg: +4.0 (4) Pace: 101.5 (8)

Key addition(s): Marcus Smart

Key departure(s): Tyus Jones, Dillon Brooks

Three numbers to know:

  • The Grizzlies are one of three teams — the Heat and Suns are the others — that have ranked in the top 10 defensively in each of the last three seasons.
  • They outscored their opponents by 10.9 points in the paint per game, leading the league in paint differential for the third straight season.
  • Luke Kennard shot 112-for-213 (52.6%) on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers, the best mark for a player with at least 200 attempts in the 10 seasons of player-tracking data.

Key question: Can they afford another hit to their depth?

A year after losing Kyle Anderson and De’Anthony Melton a year ago, the Grizzlies have essentially swapped two of their top three guys in total minutes last season for Smart and whatever they can get out of Derrick Rose. Now, losing Brooks (154th in true shooting percentage among 155 players with at least 1,500 field goal attempts over the last three seasons) may be addition by subtraction. But this team is still a lot less deep than it was when it went 56-26 in 2020-21, especially when you consider that Morant is suspended for 25 games and Brandon Clarke could be out for all or most of the season.

The core is still young, though. Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. will be 24 years old on opening night, while Desmond Bane will be 25. There’s more youth coming off the bench, with Ziaire Williams still the most intriguing guy in that reserve group. The Grizz were the No. 2 seed again last season even though Morant, Bane, Jackson and Steven Adams played in just 12 games together.

Last Week:11

2022-23 record: 38-44

OffRtg: 115.9 (6) DefRtg: 116.1 (25) NetRtg: -0.2 (20) Pace: 97.2 (28)

Key addition(s): Grant Williams, Seth Curry

Key departure(s): Reggie Bullock

Three numbers to know:

  • The Mavs were the only team that ranked in the top five in three of the four factors on offense, ranking fifth in effective field goal percentage, third in free throw rate, and second in turnover rate.
  • They were outscored by 8.3 points in the paint per game, the worst discrepancy for any team in the last four seasons. They ranked third in field goal percentage in the paint (60.8%), but took only 41.8% of their shots (the league’s second lowest rate) in the paint.
  • Kyrie Irving averaged 1.24 points per possession on 289 total isolation possessions with the Nets and Mavs. That was the best mark for any player with at least 200 isolation possessions in the 19 seasons of Synergy tracking.

Key question: Can they defend again?

With Irving and Luka Doncic, the Mavs’ offense should be alright. They scored 119.2 points per 100 possessions in 444 total minutes with the two stars on the floor together last season, and they can have one of the two on the floor at all times. Though they were 5-11 with both in uniform, they actually outscored their opponents by nine points over those 16 games, with all 11 losses having been within five points in the last five minutes. And there are few better offensive complements to two of the best one-on-one players in the world than Curry, one of the best 3-point shooters in NBA history.

But Doncic, Irving and Curry are all defensive liabilities to a certain degree. In Jason Kidd’s first season as Mavs head coach, his team had the league’s seventh-ranked defense and was the No. 4 seed in the West. And last season, the Mavs saw the second-biggest jump in points allowed per 100 possessions, allowing 116.1 and ranking 25th defensively.

Williams, along with better health for Maxi Kleber, should help on that end of the floor. But point-of-attack defense will be critical, and the Mavs can’t really contend if they don’t climb out of the bottom 10 defensively.

Last Week:9

2022-23 record: 42-40

OffRtg: 113.8 (20) DefRtg: 112.0 (6) NetRtg: +1.9 (10) Pace: 99.6 (16)

Key addition(s): N/A

Key departure(s): N/A

Three numbers to know:

  • The Pelicans allowed 2.1 fewer points per 100 possessions than the league average (114.1), making last season their best defensive season since their first in New Orleans (2002-03).
  • 81% of their 3-point attempts, the league’s highest rate, were catch-and-shoot attempts.
  • In his three seasons, Zion Williamson has averaged 21.6 points in the paint per 36 minutes, easily the highest rate among 1,745 players who’ve played at least 500 career minutes in the 27 years for which points in the paint have been tracked. Only three other players — Shaquille O’Neal (17.9), Montrezl Harrell (16.5) and Boban Marjanovic (15.6) — have averaged at least 15 points in the paint per 36 minutes.

Key question: How good is Trey Murphy III?

Williamson’s health is obviously the big variable. But the continued development of Murphy can raise the Pelicans’ ceiling. Huge jumps in his per-game numbers in his second season came with a huge jump in efficiency, and only Julius Randle scored more points on spot-up possessions, according to Synergy tracking. We know Murphy can shoot off the catch and attack a close-out (64.8% shooting in the paint is strong). Even without Williamson, he doesn’t need to handle the ball much. But if he can expand his game even more, the Pels will really have something in the 23-year-old.

The defensive improvement was mostly about opponent 3-point shooting: 33.9% (first) last season vs. 36.5% (26th) in 2021-22. And while that’s partially a result of a lower percentage of their opponents’ 3s being wide open (51% vs. 56%), the Pels can’t count on their opponents shooting that much worse than the league average (36.1%) again.

Last Week:8

2022-23 record: 42-40

OffRtg: 113.3 (23) DefRtg: 113.1 (10) NetRtg: +0.2 (18) Pace: 101.6 (7)

Key addition(s): Shake Milton

Key departure(s): Taurean Prince

Three numbers to know:

  • Last season was just the second time in franchise history (34 years) that the Wolves had a top-10 defense. The previous time was the only season (2003-04) that they’ve won a playoff series.
  • They’re one of three teams — the Warriors and Clippers are the others — with eight players who shot the league average or better on at least 100 3-point attempts last season. They had seven at the end of last season, losing Prince while adding Brown and Milton.
  • They recorded two of the five highest single-game effective field goal percentage marks in NBA history, 78.7% vs. Chicago on Dec. 18 (second highest) and 77.5% vs. San Antonio on Oct. 26 (fifth highest).

Key question: How large of a sample size do we need to see?

The Wolves outscored their opponents by 0.6 points per 100 possessions in 529 total minutes with Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert on the floor together last season. That’s not bad, but it’s not good, the offense was bad (106.2 scored per 100) in those minutes, and the defense was terrible in the playoffs when the two bigs were both on the floor.

Giving it another shot is worthwhile, especially because Anthony Edwards’ development will make this team better no matter who’s on the frontline. But with Naz Reid re-signed to a three-year, $42-million deal, three of the Wolves’ five highest-paid players are centers who can’t necessarily play together. Minnesota was outscored by 11 points per 100 possessions in 284 total minutes with Reid on the floor with either Gobert or Towns last season. At some point, the Wolves will have to part ways with one of these guys and hopefully, better health gives them more data to evaluate if they can play together and/or which one’s the better fit alongside their franchise player.

Last Week:10

2022-23 record: 40-42

OffRtg: 114.2 (16) DefRtg: 113.2 (13) NetRtg: +1.0 (15) Pace: 101.9 (3)

Key addition(s): Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace, Vasilije Micic

Key departure(s): N/A

Three numbers to know:

  • The Thunder had the league’s most improved offense, scoring 10.4 more points per 100 possessions in 2022-23 (114.2, 16th) than they did in ’21-22 (103.8, 30th).
  • They had the biggest differential between their record vs. the 14 teams that finished at or below .500 (23-11, ninth best) and their record vs. the 16 teams that finished over .500 (17-31, eighth worst).
  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has led the league in drives per game in each of the last three seasons. His 15.9 points in the paint per game last season were the second-highest average for a guard in the 27 seasons for which points in the paint have been tracked.

Key question: Who’s going to play and who isn’t?

The Thunder have too many players, and between now and opening night, they’ll need to trade or waive a couple of useful guys. Then there will be some better players (or some that need to play for development) that aren’t in the rotation from night to night. What happens with Aleksej Pokusevski going forward will be interesting and might tell us a lot about how ready the Thunder are to win.

But if you add Holmgren and Wallace to the five starters from last year (minus-2.1 points per 100 possessions in 289 total minutes together), that’s a core group of seven guys that should be the focus. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is already a star and there’s a ton of potential in Holmgren, Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams. The latter was just the second rookie in the 44 years of the 3-point line (32-year-old Arvydas Sabonis was the first) to shoot 55% or better on at least 500 2-point attempts and 35% or better on at least 100 3-point attempts.

Last Week:12

2022-23 record: 37-45

OffRtg: 115.3 (9) DefRtg: 116.0 (23) NetRtg: -0.7 (22) Pace: 101.0 (11)

Key addition(s): John Collins, Taylor Hendricks, Keyonte George

Key departure(s): N/A

Three numbers to know:

  • The Jazz recorded assists on 61.1% of their field goals, the 11th highest rate in the league and up from 55.2% (29th) in 2021-22. That was the league’s biggest jump.
  • They had the league’s biggest differential between their record when they shot the league average or better from 3-point range (26-10) and their record when they shot worse (11-35).
  • Lauri Markkanen averaged 0.497 points per touch, the highest rate (by a healthy margin) among 324 players with at least 1,000 touches. He saw the biggest jump both in points per game (from 14.8 to 25.6) among 340 players who played in at least 25 games in each of the last two seasons and points per 36 minutes (from 17.3 to 26.8) among 234 players who played at least 300 minutes in 2021-22 and 1,000 minutes last season.

Key question: What do they have in the backcourt?

The Jazz will surely play Markkanen, Collins and Walker Kessler together. They outscored their opponents by 5.3 points per 100 possessions in 454 minutes with Markkanen, Kelly Olynyk and Kessler on the floor together last season, and Collins will be a defensive upgrade as part of that trio.

That’s a lot of talent up front, but the guard positions are more interesting. Talen Horton-Tucker put up good numbers (18.2, 5.1 and 6.0) as the starting point guard after the All-Star break last season, and the Jazz have a couple of vets — Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton — who could start at the two (and are both under contract for three more years). But those guys are also best suited to come off the bench and the next generation — George and Ochai Agbaji — is here and needs to play. Agbaji was super fun to watch as a rookie, with good shooting in the paint (55.6%) for a rookie guard and a very good mark (44-for-96, 45.8%) on corner 3s.

Last Week:14

2022-23 record: 22-60

OffRtg: 110.5 (27) DefRtg: 118.6 (29) NetRtg: -8.1 (29) Pace: 99.7 (14)

Key addition(s): Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, Jeff Green, Amen Thompson

Key departure(s): Kenyon Martin Jr.

Coaching change: Stephen Silas out, Ime Udoka in

Three numbers to know:

  • The Rockets are the first team in 29 years (and the first team in a 30-team league) to rank in the bottom five on both ends of the floor in three straight seasons. The last team to do it was the Mavs in 1991-92, ’92-93 and ’93-94.
  • They were outscored by 12.2 points per game from 3-point range, the biggest discrepancy for any team in the 44 years of the 3-point line.
  • They were one of two teams — the Pelicans were the other — that ranked in the top 10 in both offensive rebounding percentage (first) and defensive rebounding percentage (ninth).

Key question: Are the young guys ready to win?

The Rockets got 61% of their 2022-23 minutes, the league’s highest rate by a healthy margin, from rookies (24%, highest) or second-year players (38%, also highest). That rate should drop dramatically, not only because Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun have graduated to their third season, but also because they’ve added vets who will play a lot.

VanVleet, Brooks and Udoka will improve the defense themselves, but Green and Sengun also need to get better on that end of the floor. Their readiness and willingness to defend may go a long way in determining how far the Rockets climb up the standings because offense may still be a struggle. VanVleet will have them more organized and Udoka will hopefully have them more disciplined, but both of the new perimeter guys are inefficient scorers. Among 155 players with at least 1,500 field goal attempts over the last three seasons, VanVleet (54.3%) and Brooks (50.7%) rank 132nd and 154th in true shooting percentage.

Last Week:13

2022-23 record: 33-49

OffRtg: 114.0 (18) DefRtg: 118.0 (28) NetRtg: -4.0 (26) Pace: 99.3 (17)

Key addition(s): Scoot Henderson

Key departure(s): N/A

Three numbers to know:

  • The Blazers are the fourth team in the 27 years of play-by-play data to rank in the bottom five defensively in four straight seasons.
  • In each of the last two seasons, the Blazers have seen the biggest post-break drop-off in regard to both winning percentage and point differential per 100 possessions. Last season, they were 28-30 (minus-0.3 points per 100 possessions) and two games in the loss column behind the fourth-place Clippers at the All-Star break and 5-19 (minus-12.7) after it.
  • Damian Lillard had a true shooting percentage of 64.5%, the highest mark of his career and the fifth highest mark in NBA history for a player who averaged at least 30 points per game (83 instances).

Key question: What do they get for Lillard?

The Blazers handed out two contracts — $160 million to Jerami Grant and $33 million to Matisse Thybulle — that would be for a team looking to win now. But this team isn’t going to win now if it trades Lillard. Heck, this team is 39-48 with Lillard in the lineup over the last two seasons.

General manager Joe Cronin can only trade Lillard once, so he has to get it right. And because Lillard is under contract for the next four years, there certainly isn’t any rush. The good news is that the Blazers have a couple of young players — Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe — who could be pretty special. And when they add more young pieces and future picks, they’ll be set up pretty well for five years down the line. (Their best picks for the next few years will likely be their own.)

Last Week:15

2022-23 record: 22-60

OffRtg: 109.7 (29) DefRtg: 119.6 (30) NetRtg: -9.9 (30) Pace: 102.1 (2)

Key addition(s): Victor Wembanyama, Cedi Osman, Cameron Payne, Reggie Bullock

Key departure(s): N/A

Three numbers to know:

  • The Spurs were 10.2 points per 100 possessions worse last season (minus-9.9, 30th) than they were in 2021-22 (plus-0.2). That was the league’s biggest season-to-season drop by a wide margin. They were the sixth team in the 19 seasons for which there have been 30 teams to rank in the bottom two on both ends of the floor.
  • Reggie Bullock led the league with 89 corner 3-pointers last season. The 44.3% he shot on corner 3s ranked 11th among 50 players with at least 100 attempts. He was assisted on 95.3% of his field goals, the highest rate among 316 players with at least 100 made field goals.

Key question: How much does Wembanyama play?

The No. 1 pick has been durable thus far, but the NBA presents a new level of physicality and a schedule with almost twice as many games as he played last season. And the Spurs will obviously want to be careful with their No. 1 asset. Jeremy Sochan was the No. 9 pick last year, didn’t seem to have a definitive injury, and played in only 11 of the team’s last 30 games with knee soreness.

The Spurs should be better, but it would be surprising to see them compete for a Play-In spot. Wembanyama is still just 19 years old and isn’t the only San Antonio big who’s lacking bulk. And while they were dealing with absences last season, the Spurs were also outscored by 8.6 points per 100 possessions in 439 total minutes with Tre Jones, Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson on the floor.

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