The Thunder have been a better team when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is on the floor.
We are one-third of the way through the 2023-24 season, and we have a familiar storyline in Denver. Once again, the Nuggets suffer a huge drop-off when two-time Kia MVP Nikola Jokic steps off the floor.
Through 29 games, the defending champs have been 17.4 points per 100 possessions better with Jokic on the floor (plus 10.9) than they’ve been with him off the floor (minus 6.5).
That’s not as big as Jokic’s league-leading differential of 22.9 points per 100 possessions last season. Nor is it the biggest among the 272 players who’ve played at least 300 total minutes through Thursday, Dec. 21. Here’s the top 12.
Biggest on-off-court NetRtg differential
| Player | Team | Min. | On Court | Off Court | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | OKC | 865 | +13.5 | -6.1 | 19.6 |
| Nikola Jokic | DEN | 938 | +10.9 | -6.5 | 17.4 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | DEN | 880 | +11.1 | -5.6 | 16.7 |
| Kawhi Leonard | LAC | 932 | +10.0 | -5.8 | 15.8 |
| Tari Eason | HOU | 357 | +13.8 | -1.9 | 15.7 |
| Mark Williams | CHA | 508 | -1.2 | -16.6 | 15.4 |
| Isaiah Joe | OKC | 534 | +16.4 | +2.0 | 14.4 |
| Day’Ron Sharpe | BKN | 428 | +10.3 | -4.0 | 14.3 |
| Paul George | LAC | 900 | +9.9 | -3.6 | 13.5 |
| Goga Bitadze | ORL | 506 | +10.9 | -2.4 | 13.3 |
| Anthony Edwards | MIN | 820 | +11.3 | -2.0 | 13.3 |
| Dante Exum | DAL | 418 | +10.1 | -3.2 | 13.3 |
On/Off Court = Team’s point differential per 100 possessions w/ player on or off floor
Minimum 300 minutes on the floor w/ one team (272 players)
Through Dec. 21, 2023
A few notes:
- The differential for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been about even on both ends of the floor, with the Thunder 10.1 points per 100 possessions better on offense and 9.4 per 100 better on defense. And that defensive differential is huge for a starter, as opposing offenses will generally be better when there are better players on the floor.
- Nikola Jokic has the biggest differential on offense by a healthy margin, with the Nuggets having scored 18.7 more points per 100 possessions with him on the floor (122.9) than they have with him off the floor (104.2). That’s mostly about the team’s shooting, but there’s also a big on-off differential regarding turnover rate (11.5 vs. 13.9 per 100 possessions).
- As with Gilgeous-Alexander, a big differential for a starter on defense is notable, and the Clippers have allowed 10.1 fewer points per 100 possessions with Kawhi Leonard on the floor (108.6) than they have with him off the floor (118.7). That’s the second-biggest differential for a player who’s started every game he’s played in, trailing only that of Evan Mobley (-10.5).
- Tari Eason is one of three players on this list – Leonard and Nets’ Day’Ron Sharpe are the others – where the differential has been bigger on defense than on offense. The Rockets have been worse offensively with Eason on the floor, but they’ve allowed 17.3 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the floor (97.3) than they have with him off the floor (114.6). That’s the biggest defensive differential among the 272 players who’ve played at least 300 minutes by a healthy margin. The worst belongs to teammate Jalen Green.
- Mark Williams is the only player in the top 27 of on-off differential whose team has been outscored with him on the floor. The Hornets have just been really bad (outscored by 16.6 points per 100 possessions) with him off the floor. He’s missed seven of the last eight games and they’ve lost all seven, with two losses by more than 30 points in the last six days.
- With Gilgeous-Alexander leading the league in drives per game for the fourth straight season, pairing him with great shooting is, once again, the best formula for the Thunder, who’ve outscored their opponents by 22.5 points per 100 possessions with Gilgeous-Alexander and Isaiah Joe on the floor together. That’s the second-biggest differential among 546 two-man combinations that have played at least 250 minutes together, trailing only that of Nicolas Batum and Joel Embiid (plus 25.9 per 100).
- Sharpe will likely be on the floor for most of the time that Jokic is off the floor when the Nuggets visit the Nets on Friday (7:30 ET, NBA TV).
- At the bottom of the list is Andrew Wiggins, with the Warriors having been 17.8 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the floor (minus 8.9) than they’ve been with him off the floor (plus 8.9). Former Warrior Jordan Poole has the next worst on-off differential (minus 14.1) among full-time starters.
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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Twitter.
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