Last season’s Boston Celtics were just the third team in 27 years of play-by-play data to rank in the top three on both ends of the floor, ranking second in both offensive and defensive efficiency. But, unlike the other teams to do so — the 2014-15 and 2016-17 Golden State Warriors — the Celtics fell short of a championship.

So the Celtics made some big changes … and they’re right back where they were last season, second on both ends of the floor.

Teams that have ranked in the top three on both ends

Since 1996-97
Off. Rank = Rank in points scored per 100 possessions
Def. Rank = Rank in points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions

Statistically, the Celtics are 3.6 points per 100 possessions better than they were last season. But are they a better fit to win a championship? Here are some notes and numbers regarding the new Celtics.

1. Less dependent on 3s

Last season, the Celtics ranked second in 3-point rate, taking 48.0% of their shots from beyond the arc. And not surprisingly, they had the league’s best record (38-5) when they shot the league average (36.1%) or better.

They also had the fourth-best record (19-20) in games in which they shot worse than the league average from deep. But that’s a losing record, and they were 1-6 when they shot under 35% in the playoffs.

This season, the Celtics again have the league’s best record (16-2, tied with Sacramento) when they’ve shot the league average (36.6%) or better from 3-point range. But they’re also 13-6 (best in the league by a healthy margin) when they’ve shot worse than the league average from deep.

So while they haven’t taken a much lower percentage of their shots from 3-point range (47.4%), they’ve done a much better job of mitigating the effects of a bad shooting night.

Overall, the Celtics rank 22nd in turnover differential, having committed 0.8 per game more than their opponents. But they’ve committed fewer than their opponents in 12 of those 19 games in which they’ve shot worse than the league average from beyond the arc.

2. Offensive improvement

Though they ranked second offensively last season, the Celtics have seen the league’s fifth-biggest jump in points scored per 100 possessions.

Improvement has come on the glass. The Celtics rank 12th in offensive rebounding percentage (29.9%), up from 27th (25.5%) last season, with only four teams having seen a bigger jump. So they’re giving themselves more second chances, and they’ve averaged just 0.2 fewer shooting opportunities than their opponents, up from 1.2 fewer last season.

The Celtics still rank low in ball and player movement, but they’ve added some post-ups, ranking sixth with 6.1 per game, up from 3.8 (26th) last season, according to Second Spectrum tracking. And they’ve been remarkably efficient on those post-ups, shooting 63% out of the post and scoring a league-best 1.26 points per chance when the post-up leads directly to a shot (or turnover or trip to the line) from the guy posting or the teammate he passed to.

Kristaps Porzingis has shot an amazing 28-for-37 (76%) out of the post, also making all 26 of his free throw attempts when he’s been fouled in the post. But Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Jrue Holiday have also been remarkably efficient on post-ups.

And for the Celtics, it’s about the variety as much as efficiency. Post-ups turn defenses around, draw double-teams and create cutting lanes that aren’t produced otherwise.

3. Less switching, better paint protection on defense

On defense, the Celtics have allowed the same number of points per 100 possessions as they did last season (110.6), but that’s an improvement given that the league average has gone up.

They still switch a lot, ranking fourth in the percentage of ball screens that they’ve switched (29%), but that’s a big drop from 40% (second highest rate) last season, according to Second Spectrum tracking. Al Horford’s switch rate has dropped from 28% to 20%, while Porzingis has switched just 10% of the ball-screens he’s defended.

While switching is meant to keep opposing offenses flat, the Celtics have defended the paint better this season. Opponents have shot just 53.8% in the paint, the league’s second-lowest opponent mark and down from 56.1% (fifth lowest) last season. That number is just 52.6% with Porzingis on the floor.

They’ve also seen a small drop (from 48% to 47%, fifth lowest) in the percentage of their opponents’ shots that have come in the paint.

The Celtics are allowing more 3-pointers this season. In each of their last four losses, their opponents have made at least 18 3-pointers on 40% or better shooting from beyond the arc. According to Second Spectrum, 58% of their opponents’ 3-point attempts have been wide-open, a rate higher than the league average (53%).

4. Do they have the depth?

While the Celtics may have the best top six in the league, there could be questions deeper in their rotation. But so far, their depth has been terrific, especially offensively.

In fact, Boston has been slightly better with two or fewer of their top six guys on the floor than they’ve been with three or more of the top six on the floor.

Celtics’ efficiency, 2023-24

Teams will look to pick on Payton Pritchard and Sam Hauser defensively, but both have more than made up for whatever defensive efficiencies they have on the other end of the floor.

Two starters, however, are critical. The Celtics have been 12.4 points per 100 possessions better with Derrick White on the floor (plus-15.0) than they’ve been with him off the floor (minus-2.6). And Tatum, of course, is their MVP candidate. They won their first two games he missed but lost in Indiana without him on Monday.

5. The same, but different

Statistically, the Celtics are again the best team in the league. But in a few ways, they’re different, and they’ve seemingly found ways to better prepare themselves for nights when the 3s aren’t falling.

Six teams in the league are more than 10 games over .500 through Wednesday, and the Celtics are playing each of the other five in January. They lost in Oklahoma City but remained perfect at home with an overtime win over the Wolves on Wednesday.

Next up is a rest-disadvantage game* in Milwaukee on Thursday (7:30 ET, TNT). Then it’ll be visits from the Nuggets (Jan. 19) and Clippers (Jan. 27) later in the month.

* It’s the second game of a back-to-back for the Celtics, but the Bucks are rested.

The Celtics won their first meeting with the Bucks (Nov. 22), though Milwaukee cut a 20-point, fourth-quarter deficit down to three in the final minute.

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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X. 

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