Jim O'Brien doesn't get involved in the mind games that can result if too much time is spent pondering what could -- or even should – happen in the NBA Draft Lottery.
The Pacers coach has experienced both edges of the NBA's sword of fate, missing out on a chance at No. 1 pick Tim Duncan while an assistant to Rick Pitino with Boston in 1997 but gladly accepting the gift of Paul Pierce, who inexplicably slipped to No. 10 the following year.
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Though there's a slim chance – 2.9 percent – the Pacers could land one of the top three picks in tonight's NBA Draft Lottery (8 p.m., ESPN), O'Brien is playing the smart hand and planning the much more likely result of no movement at all from the team's current slot at No. 11.
"To me, we're picking 11th. It's just the way it is," O'Brien said. "If somebody tells me we're picking one, two or three, that'd be great. But in my mind, we're picking 11 and I think we can get good players at 11 and 41 (in the second round).
"I don't worry about the fate of the ping-pong balls. It's nothing I can control."
This being Larry Bird's first lottery pick as the decision-maker for the Pacers, it represents an opportunity for the President of Basketball Operations to imprint his stamp on O'Brien's roster. But Bird doesn't necessarily view it from that perspective. His only goal is to secure a player that can help the team improve on the 36-46 record that resulted in the lottery slot.
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"Obviously, I really believe the player we do get with our pick is going to help us out," Bird said. "That's the key. You've got to really study them. You've got to know them. And you've got to hope the player you really want is there at the pick. The draft being the way it is, and being deep, if we don't get the player we want we'll still get a player that can help our basketball team so it's a win-win situation."
Just exactly who the Pacers want remains a mystery, though a sampling of prominent mock draft Websites projects a strong interest in Russell Westbrook of UCLA, a 6-4 guard with the requisite size, strength and defensive ability to fill the team's pressing backcourt needs. Bird and O'Brien both have identified point guard and post as the two positions of greatest draft priority.
"More important than that, we have to develop a toughness to our team and it's across the board," O'Brien said. "We have to know when we go on the court that we have what it takes mentally and physically from a toughness standpoint to compete at the highest level. I don't think we were a tough enough team this year.
"And so when we're looking at trades of free agents or draft choices, I know Larry values toughness at a very high level so we could not be more on the same page. Certainly, it's got to be talent but if there's going to be a tie-breaker between two people it's going to come down to proven mental and physical toughness."
O'Brien will be involved in the evaluation process, including the player workouts that will begin on June 2 leading up to the June 26 NBA Draft. He's not sure yet how the talent available in the draft aligns with the team's needs.
"The scouting group has been studying this all year; (the coaches) are just starting to study it and inevitably, you always want the very best," he said. "If you're looking at a point guard and think, 'Gee, I hope this guy's there,' you know you're pushing the envelope. Chances are he won't be there if you think that highly of him. So I don't know how it aligns and you never really know how things are going to work out.
"There are always surprises on draft night. There's always one surprise in the top 10 that maybe will drop a guy you really want to you – sometimes two surprises."
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The Duncan draft came in O'Brien's first season on Pitino's staff. The Celtics, slotted second, slipped to third when San Antonio leapfrogged to No. 1. Boston wound up taking Chauncey Billups with the No. 3 pick and Ron Mercer at No. 6. Billups was traded to Toronto as a rookie and wound up playing for five teams in his first five seasons before settling in with Detroit. Mercer was a productive player but fell well short of stardom.
"Billups and Mercer were good players," O'Brien said, "but they weren't Duncan."
The following year the Celtics had the 10th pick and set their sights on Dirk Nowitzki. Their disappointment at Milwaukee's selection of the German star at No. 8 was tempered by the unexpected availability of Pierce.
"We were sitting in that (draft) room and we never even had Paul in because we knew we weren't going to get him. He dropped right into our lap," O'Brien said. "(The reaction) was kind of twofold: the overwhelming feeling was one of disappointment because we really wanted Nowitzki and he was drafted two spots in front of us -- but Paul dropped to us."
O'Brien's experience illustrates the vagaries of the lottery. Sometimes, winding up No. 10 works out better than being No. 3, so you don't have to win the lottery to strike it rich in the draft.
